Payame Noor University Journal of Urban Ecology Researches 2538-3930 15 4 2024 12 21 Structural Analysis of Drivers Affecting the Future State of the Urban Environment, Case study: District 22 of Tehran Metropolis Structural Analysis of Drivers Affecting the Future State of the Urban Environment, Case study: District 22 of Tehran Metropolis 151 168 10152 10.30473/grup.2023.67711.2782 FA Leila Gheyrati Arani Associate Professor, Department Agriculture, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran. Reza Mohajer Associate Professor, Department Agriculture, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran. Journal Article 2023 04 29 The present article has tried to identify and cluster the drivers influencing the future state of the urban environment in the 22nd district of Tehran using the method of structural analysis. In terms of practical purpose, in terms of method, this research is a combination of documentary and survey methods, and in terms of nature, it is based on the new methods of future research, analytical and exploratory science, which was carried out by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. . Theoretical data was prepared by documentary method and experimental data was prepared by survey method. The statistical population was 20 urban experts based on purposeful or judgmental sampling. 21 drivers have been processed in the form of 5 economic, socio-cultural, managerial and institutional, physical and environmental dimensions with the structural interaction analysis method in MICMAC software. The results of the research from the analysis of mutual effects indicate the dispersion of barriers in a complex and intermediate situation of effectiveness and effectiveness. The clustering system of obstacles indicates the concentration of driving forces in the area of independent propellants. Drivers of improving access to public transportation, using light and clean fuels, strengthening social and public participation in improving the urban environment, tightening laws and regulations to reduce air and water pollution, increasing the density of forest cover in the region, management Optimizing urban waste, developing green spaces and parks, using renewable energy and controlling the increase in urban population have the greatest direct impact on the future state of the urban environment in the 22nd district of Tehran. In terms of systemic performance, these forces play the role of high influence and low influence in the system environment with the aim of improving the quality of the urban environment, and as a result, they are considered the most effective and key drivers. The present article has tried to identify and cluster the drivers influencing the future state of the urban environment in the 22nd district of Tehran using the method of structural analysis. In terms of practical purpose, in terms of method, this research is a combination of documentary and survey methods, and in terms of nature, it is based on the new methods of future research, analytical and exploratory science, which was carried out by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. . Theoretical data was prepared by documentary method and experimental data was prepared by survey method. The statistical population was 20 urban experts based on purposeful or judgmental sampling. 21 drivers have been processed in the form of 5 economic, socio-cultural, managerial and institutional, physical and environmental dimensions with the structural interaction analysis method in MICMAC software. The results of the research from the analysis of mutual effects indicate the dispersion of barriers in a complex and intermediate situation of effectiveness and effectiveness. The clustering system of obstacles indicates the concentration of driving forces in the area of independent propellants. Drivers of improving access to public transportation, using light and clean fuels, strengthening social and public participation in improving the urban environment, tightening laws and regulations to reduce air and water pollution, increasing the density of forest cover in the region, management Optimizing urban waste, developing green spaces and parks, using renewable energy and controlling the increase in urban population have the greatest direct impact on the future state of the urban environment in the 22nd district of Tehran. In terms of systemic performance, these forces play the role of high influence and low influence in the system environment with the aim of improving the quality of the urban environment, and as a result, they are considered the most effective and key drivers. https://grup.journals.pnu.ac.ir/article_10152_d5b93141c5b269105c10eb5eb0ce33ba.pdf