Study of Drivers Affecting the Future State of Optimal Governance in Water Resources Management, Case Study: Central Part of Shiraz City

Introduction 
Water is one of the fundamental resources for sustaining life, food and energy production, social and economic development, and the preservation of ecosystems. Population growth, urbanization, climate change, declining precipitation, and increasing extraction from water resources have created serious challenges for the sustainable management of this resource. In Iran, the complexity of water-related issues, the multiplicity of decision-making institutions, fragmented management, limited transparency, and restricted stakeholder participation have increased the need to pay attention to good water governance. The water issue is not limited to the physical scarcity of resources; rather, the manner of decision-making, allocation, monitoring, law enforcement, institutional accountability, and the extent of stakeholder participation also play a role in shaping the condition of water resources. From this perspective, good water governance can provide a framework for coordinating the interests and responsibilities of different actors and reducing existing conflicts. The central district of Shiraz County also faces declining groundwater resources, recurrent droughts, resource pollution, water losses, and weaknesses in some management infrastructures. The decline in groundwater resources, together with increasing demand, has increased pressure on surface and groundwater resources, while the continuation of traditional consumption patterns, inefficiencies in some distribution networks, and the consequences of climate change have made the need to reconsider water management and governance mechanisms more evident. Under such conditions, a forward-looking approach, rather than focusing solely on current problems, identifies forces that can shape the future trajectory of the governance system. Therefore, identifying the drivers affecting the future state of good water governance can provide a basis for more effective policymaking and planning. The aim of this study is to identify and analyze the key drivers affecting the realization of good water governance in the central district of Shiraz County.
 
Theoretical Foundations
Water governance refers to a set of policies, processes, and institutions established for the management, allocation, and protection of water resources and encompasses social, economic, environmental, and institutional dimensions. Good water governance emphasizes principles such as stakeholder participation, transparency and access to information, accountability, responsibility, the rule of law, justice and equitable distribution of resources, the use of scientific and indigenous knowledge, capacity development, inter-organizational cooperation, and sustainability. Stakeholder participation means the involvement of different groups in the decision-making process and can increase the acceptance of decisions and cooperation in their implementation. Transparency, access to information, and regular reporting enable public monitoring and evaluation, while accountability strengthens the responsibility of institutions and individuals for their decisions and actions. Justice in water allocation, attention to vulnerable groups, and prevention of discrimination are important elements of the social sustainability of the water system. Modern approaches to water governance, unlike a purely centralized governmental model, emphasize interaction between government and society, active stakeholder participation, and flexible and multi-level mechanisms. A review of previous studies shows that a significant part of domestic research has focused on indicators, policies, and assessments of the existing situation and has paid less attention to the comprehensive identification of driving forces and their interrelationships from a futures studies perspective. Accordingly, the present study attempts to address this gap by focusing on the local conditions of the central district of Shiraz County.
 
Mothodology
This study is applied in terms of purpose and analytical and exploratory in terms of nature, based on a futures studies approach. Theoretical data were collected through documentary research, while empirical data were collected through a survey based on the Delphi technique. The statistical population consisted of experts and specialists with theoretical knowledge and practical experience in the field of water resources, particularly specialists from the Office of Sustainable Rural Development and the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Fars Province. Thirty individuals were selected using purposive sampling. In the first stage, based on documentary studies and expert opinions, 36 drivers were identified across eight dimensions: participation, rule of law, transparency, accountability, consensus building, justice and fairness, efficiency and effectiveness, and responsiveness. These drivers encompassed a range of institutional and legal factors as well as social, informational, and managerial factors, making it possible to examine their interrelationships. The Delphi method was used to benefit from the knowledge and experience of experts and to reduce the dispersion of viewpoints, after which the results were examined within the framework of structural analysis. The structural interactions among the drivers were then examined in a 36 by 36 matrix and analyzed using MICMAC software. The filling rate of the matrix was 21.91 percent, and after two iterations, the desirability and optimization of the matrix reached 100 percent.
 
Finding
Among the 36 driving forces, 11 key drivers with high influence and relatively low dependence were identified: establishing and strengthening participatory institutions, equitable distribution of water resources, the rule of law, attracting public participation in water resource investment, capacity building and empowerment of stakeholders, preventing discrimination, collective agreement on water resource problems, organizational development for law enforcement bodies, systematization for responsible authorities, ensuring the independence and impartiality of responsible institutions, and providing transparent and periodic reports. Among these, establishing and strengthening participatory institutions, equitable distribution of water resources, and the rule of law were among the drivers with the highest direct influence. The findings indicate that strengthening local participation and establishing participatory institutions can increase coordination among stakeholders and their capacity to resolve conflicts. Equitable water distribution and prevention of discrimination are also important for reducing inequality and social tensions. The rule of law, strengthening monitoring systems, organizing law enforcement bodies, and ensuring the independence and impartiality of responsible institutions provide the basis for more effective implementation of water policies. Public participation in investment, stakeholder empowerment, and the creation of consensus-building mechanisms can also strengthen the financial, social, and knowledge capacities required for water management. Accordingly, it is recommended that participatory institutions be strengthened and mechanisms for electronic participation and public access to information be developed; organizational structures be reviewed and bureaucracy reduced; transparent monitoring, evaluation, and reporting systems be established for law enforcement bodies and water resource authorities; the necessary legal mechanisms for the independence and independent oversight of responsible institutions be designed and implemented; standards for transparent and periodic reporting be developed; stakeholder education and empowerment be expanded; and mechanisms for dialogue, consensus building, public oversight, and complaint handling be strengthened. Overall, the realization of good water governance in the central district of Shiraz County requires the simultaneous and targeted application of key drivers and the creation of coordination among institutional, social, economic, and managerial dimensions. Such an approach can provide the basis for participatory decision-making, increased public trust, reduced conflicts, improved efficiency in water allocation, and strengthened adaptive capacity in resource management under future conditions, while providing a basis for localized and forward-looking policymaking in the region. Implementing these measures requires clear division of responsibilities, inter-institutional cooperation, continuous monitoring of results, and the use of reliable data to revise water management decisions and programs over different periods.
 
Discussion and Conclusion
The results of structural analysis showed that the drivers under study are situated within a complex network of interrelationships and that the good water governance system in the study area is predominantly unstable. The distribution of factors around the diagonal axis indicates an intermediate status for many drivers in terms of influence and dependence. Among the 36 drivers, 19 factors were classified as dual drivers, meaning that they are both influenced by other factors and exert influence on them. In contrast, some factors were classified as influential, dependent, independent, secondary leverage, regulatory, target, and risk drivers. This structure indicates that the realization of good water governance cannot be achieved merely through intervention in a single factor and requires simultaneous attention to a set of institutional, social, managerial, and legal factors. Matrix analysis showed that the relationships among the drivers are highly interconnected and that a considerable proportion of the relationships exert moderate to very strong influences. Therefore, managing the key drivers can generate chain effects on other components of the water governance system. Moreover, the classification of a large number of factors as dual drivers indicates that many variables simultaneously function as causes and consequences of system changes. Consequently, policymaking in this field should move away from one-dimensional approaches and focus on establishing connections among institutions, strengthening social capacities, improving legal mechanisms, and increasing transparency. Attention to risk and target drivers is also important because changes in some factors can significantly affect the trajectory of system transformation.