Projection of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Northwestern Cities of Iran under SSP Scenarios of the NorESM2 Climate Model

Document Type : Science - Research

Authors

1 Ph.D. of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.

2 Professor, Department of Physical Geography, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.

Abstract

The aim of the current research is to forecast temperature and precipitation changes in northwest of Iran under SSP scenarios of the NorESM2 model. By using Sen's slope estimator, the temperature and precipitation of selected cities were trended during 1985–2014. Then, using SDSM6.1 software, the mentioned parameters were simulated for the base period (1985–2014) and predicted for 2015–2043.To evaluate the performance of the model, the error measurement indices MSE, RMSE and MAE were used. The innovation of this research is the use of new SSP scenarios to predict the important climatic parameters of temperature and precipitation in prominent cities in the field of Iranian tourism. The results of the test of Sen's slope estimator indicated an upward trend of the maximum temperature in all the studied cities at the 99% confidence level except Takab and Sardasht cities. According to the results of precipitation trending, Takab and Maragheh had a significant decreasing trend at the 99% confidence level, and Jolfa and Mako had a significant increasing trend at the 95% confidence level. Based on the modeling results, precipitation will increase in all the studied cities in spring, and the highest percentage of increase will be in Jolfa (20%). Precipitation will decrease in summer and autumn, and the highest percentage of decrease was predicted for Maragheh (33%). The maximum temperature will increase in all the studied cities, especially in the cold months, which will be up to 2 °C.

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Journal of Urban Ecology Researches
Volume 16, Issue 41
January 2026
Pages 19-40

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History

  • Receive Date: 10 January 2024
  • Revise Date: 25 November 2024
  • Accept Date: 27 December 2024

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