Geography And Urben Planning
Hashem Dadashpoor; Fardis Salarian
Abstract
In this research, we attempt to simulate the land use development and scenarios prediction in 1420 to reduce the effects of unbalanced development on a region of natural value. To achieve this, the SLEUTH model has been used to simulate future land use and scenario. The data and information required ...
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In this research, we attempt to simulate the land use development and scenarios prediction in 1420 to reduce the effects of unbalanced development on a region of natural value. To achieve this, the SLEUTH model has been used to simulate future land use and scenario. The data and information required for the study include slope, land cover, exclusion, urban development, transportation, hillshade, which were extracted from the SLEUTH model and its five growth coefficients. Then, using related research and researchers' opinions, the three scenarios of historical trends, protection of lands with natural value and multicenter network were evaluated.The results showed that the coefficient of expansion and gravity of the road have the greatest impact on simulation and scenario building and play a very effective role in the future development of the study area. Therefore, around the main communication axes of the study area, the pattern of linear scattered development, in the vicinity of villages and populated towns, the pattern of cluster development and in other lands with a separate structure, the pattern of scattered development and frog jumping have a spatial appearance. This development trend has been formed in the northern and central areas of the city-Mazandaran region more than other areas and the alternative scenario in order to achieve a balanced and balanced development model of the region is a multicenter network. The innovation of the research in simulating the development of constructed lands and the scenario of development developments in the city-central region of Mazandaran province is the prediction of lands constructed based on the SLEUTH model.
