Document Type : Science - Research
Authors
1
Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Environment, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2
Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Planning, management and Education, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
3
Assistant Professor, Department of Environment, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
4
Associate Professor, Department of Geotechnique and Transport, University of Shahid Beheshti, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
Qazvin city has experienced rapid growth over the last few years, owing to its important economic, agricultural, communication, and proximity to Tehran. This study aimed to model land use changes in Qazvin city and determine optimal places for city development. In this study, spatial information, geometric and radiometric correction, and functional maps from 1990 to 2020 were prepared using the Artmap fuzzy model. Land use changes until 2025 were then analyzed utilizing land use change models, Markov chain models and cellular automata. In addition, appropriate factors were identified to determine suitable areas for urban development, and standardization and integration of layers were carried out using the geographic information system and weighting operations using the Analytical Hierarchy process. According to the results, in these 30 years, the area of built land has grown by 67.43 % and if this trend continues, it will reach 3709.6 hectares in 2025. The conversion of 69.12 and 172.98 hectares of green space and other uses to urban areas will take place during this process. Also, the total area of agricultural land and green space will decrease by 72.9 hectares to 5427.63 hectares. The results of the optimal location of urban expansion also showed that 10.03% of the area (983.16 hectares) has a high potential for city expansion, which often includes the northern and eastern parts. These findings can be used as a suitable model for identifying places prone to urban development and a suitable tool for urban planning.
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