Document Type : Science - Research
Authors
1 Lecture, Department of Urbanism, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 MSc., Department of Urbanism, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
The major problem that urban plans are facing with is their lack of flexibility in the face of uncertainties which have made policies of strategic plans inefficient and have made the city vulnerable against possible futures that are ahead. These uncertainties have made the future studies an important topic, and have made urban planners to use different models of future studies to reduce the vulnerability of cities against future challenges. One of the most common future study methods is scenario planning which has helped planners overcome some of these uncertainties. With the advancement of computer technology related to scenario planning, Software such as scenario wizard provide the ability for urban planners to analyze different aspects of the city, driving leading factors of development and uncertainties associated with each factor and finally extract possible scenarios. The main objective of this study is to provide a framework for the application of scenario planning and scenario wizard software in the preparation city strategic plans. In this practical study, the city of Najafabad is case study and to promote research, surveys, and interviews with city officials has been done. The results show that urban governance, upper level management, higher education as well as the urban economy with subcategories such as sustainable agriculture, trade, industry, and tourism are key factors and driving the development of the city of Najafabad. In addition to these factors, the arrival of new technologies such as subway and the state of water resources are founded as events that affect development.
Keywords
- Future Studies
- Scenario Planning
- Uncertainties
- Driving Factors
- Scenario Wizard Software
- City of Najafabad
Main Subjects
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