تحلیل ساختاری پیشران‌های تأثیرگذار بر وضعیت آینده محیط‌زیست شهری، مطالعه موردی: منطقه 22 ‌کلان‌شهر تهران

نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار علوم محیط‌زیست، گروه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پبام نور، تهران، ایران.

2 استادیار، گروه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پبام نور، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

مطالعه حاضر کوشیده است با روش تحلیل ساختاری، پیشران‌های تأثیرگذار بر وضعیت آینده محیط‌زیست شهری منطقه 22 ‌کلان‌شهر تهران را بازشناسی و خوشه‌بندی کند. این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف کاربردی، از نظر روش ترکیبی از روش‌های اسنادی و پیمایشی و از نظر ماهیت ‌براساس روش‌های جدید علم آینده پژوهی، تحلیلی و اکتشافی است که با به‌کارگیری ترکیبی از مدل‌های کمی و کیفی انجام گرفته است. در این مطالعه داده‌های نظری با روش اسنادی و داده‌های تجربی به روش پیمایشی تهیه شد. جامعه آماری20 نفر از خبرگان شهری ‌براساس نمونه‌گیری هدفمند یا قضاوتی بود. 21 پیشران در قالب 5 بعد اقتصادی، اجتماعی-فرهنگی، مدیریتی و نهادی، کالبدی و زیست‌محیطی با روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل ساختاری در نرم‌افزار MICMAC پردازش شد. نتایج پژوهش از تحلیل اثرات متقابل، بیانگر پراکندگی موانع در وضعیتی پیچیده و بینابین از اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری است. نظام خوشه‌بندی موانع حاکی از تمرکز نیروهای پیش برنده در ناحیه پیشران‌های مستقل است. پیشران‌های  ارتقای دسترسی به حمل‌ونقل عمومی، استفاده از سوخت‌های سبک و پاک، تقویت مشارکت اجتماعی و عمومی در ارتقای محیط زیست شهری، تشدید قوانین و مقررات جهت کاهش آلودگی هوا و آب، افزایش تراکم پوشش جنگلی در منطقه، مدیریت بهینه پسماند شهری، توسعه فضاهای سبز و پارک‌ها، استفاده از انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر و کنترل افزایش جمعیت شهری بیش‌ترین تأثیرگذاری مستقیم را بر وضعیت آینده محیط‌زیست شهری منطقه 22 ‌کلان‌شهر تهران دارند. این نیروها از نظر عملکرد سیستمی نقش تأثیرگذاری بالا و تأثیرپذیری اندک را در محیط سیستم با هدف ارتقای کیفیت محیط‌زیست شهری ایفا می‌کند و در نتیجه مؤثرترین و کلیدی‌ترین پیشران‌ها محسوب می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Structural Analysis of Drivers Affecting the Future State of the Urban Environment, Case study: District 22 of Tehran Metropolis

نویسندگان [English]

  • Leila Gheyrati Arani 1
  • Reza Mohajer 2
1 Associate Professor, Department Agriculture, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department Agriculture, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The present article has tried to identify and cluster the drivers influencing the future state of the urban environment in the 22nd district of Tehran using the method of structural analysis. In terms of practical purpose, in terms of method, this research is a combination of documentary and survey methods, and in terms of nature, it is based on the new methods of future research, analytical and exploratory science, which was carried out by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. . Theoretical data was prepared by documentary method and experimental data was prepared by survey method. The statistical population was 20 urban experts based on purposeful or judgmental sampling. 21 drivers have been processed in the form of 5 economic, socio-cultural, managerial and institutional, physical and environmental dimensions with the structural interaction analysis method in MICMAC software. The results of the research from the analysis of mutual effects indicate the dispersion of barriers in a complex and intermediate situation of effectiveness and effectiveness. The clustering system of obstacles indicates the concentration of driving forces in the area of independent propellants. Drivers of improving access to public transportation, using light and clean fuels, strengthening social and public participation in improving the urban environment, tightening laws and regulations to reduce air and water pollution, increasing the density of forest cover in the region, management Optimizing urban waste, developing green spaces and parks, using renewable energy and controlling the increase in urban population have the greatest direct impact on the future state of the urban environment in the 22nd district of Tehran. In terms of systemic performance, these forces play the role of high influence and low influence in the system environment with the aim of improving the quality of the urban environment, and as a result, they are considered the most effective and key drivers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Urban Development
  • Environmental Pollution
  • Pishran
  • District 22 of Tehran Metropolis
  • Structural Analysis Method

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 09 اردیبهشت 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 10 تیر 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 23 مرداد 1402

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