مدل‌سازی تغییرات کاربری اراضی و ارائه الگوی بهینه برای گسترش شهری، مطالعه موردی: شهر قزوین

نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تهران شمال، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه برنامه ریزی، مدیریت و آموزش محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تهران شمال، تهران، ایران.

3 استادیار، گروه محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تهران شمال، تهران، ایران.

4 دانشیار، گروه ژئوتکنیک و حمل‌ونقل، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

شهر قزوین به علت نقش مهم اقتصادی، کشاورزی، ارتباطی و نزدیکی به تهران، در چند سال اخیر رشد بیش از اندازه‌ای را تجربه کرده است. هدف از این مطالعه مدل‌سازی تغییرات کاربری اراضی شهر قزوین و تعیین مکان‌های بهینه برای توسعه شهر می‌باشد. در این پژوهش ابتدا اطلاعات مکانی، تصحیح هندسی و رادیومتریک و نقشه‌های کاربری شهر از سال 1990 تا 2020، به کمک مدل فازی آرت‌مپ تهیه شد. سپس با استفاده از مدل‌های تغییرات کاربری و مدل زنجیره مارکوف و سلول‌های خودکار، تغییرات کاربری اراضی تا سال 2025 بررسی شد. همچنین شاخص‌های مناسب ‌برای تعیین پهنه‌های مناسب توسعه شهری شناسایی و عملیات استانداردسازی و تلفیق لایه‌ها با استفاده از سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی و عملیات وزن‌دهی به روش فرایند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی انجام‌ شد. نتایج نشان داد که مساحت اراضی ساخته شده، در این دوره 30 ساله، 43/67 درصد رشد داشته و با ادامه یافتن این روند در سال 2025 به 6/3709 هکتار خواهد رسید. در طی این فرایند نیز به ترتیب 12/69 و 98/172 هکتار فضای سبز و سایر کاربری‌ها به اراضی شهری تبدیل خواهند شد. همچنین مجموع مساحت زمین‌های کشاورزی و فضای سبز با 9/72 هکتار کاهش به 63/5427 هکتار خواهد رسید. نتایج ‌به‌ دست آمده از مکان‌یابی بهینه گسترش شهری نیز نشان داد که 03/10 درصد از سطح منطقه (16/983 هکتار) دارای پتانسیل بالایی برای گسترش شهر هستند که اغلب شامل قسمت‌های شمالی و شرقی می‌شوند. یافته‌های به‌دست ‌آمده از رویکرد پیشنهادی می‌تواند به‌عنوان مدل مناسبی برای شناسایی مکان‌های مستعد توسعه شهری و ابزار مناسبی برای برنامه‌ریزی شهری باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling Land use Changes and Providing an Optimal Model for Urban Expansion, Case Study: Qazvin City

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amir Sadeghi 1
  • Roxana Moogouei 2
  • Saeed Malmasi 3
  • Alireza Gharagozlou 4
1 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Environment, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Planning, management and Education, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Environment, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
4 Associate Professor, Department of Geotechnique and Transport, University of Shahid Beheshti, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Qazvin city has experienced rapid growth over the last few years, owing to its important economic, agricultural, communication, and proximity to Tehran. This study aimed to model land use changes in Qazvin city and determine optimal places for city development. In this study, spatial information, geometric and radiometric correction, and functional maps from 1990 to 2020 were prepared using the Artmap fuzzy model. Land use changes until 2025 were then analyzed utilizing land use change models, Markov chain models and cellular automata. In addition, appropriate factors were identified to determine suitable areas for urban development, and standardization and integration of layers were carried out using the geographic information system and weighting operations using the Analytical Hierarchy process. According to the results, in these 30 years, the area of built land has grown by 67.43 % and if this trend continues, it will reach 3709.6 hectares in 2025. The conversion of 69.12 and 172.98 hectares of green space and other uses to urban areas will take place during this process. Also, the total area of agricultural land and green space will decrease by 72.9 hectares to 5427.63 hectares. The results of the optimal location of urban expansion also showed that 10.03% of the area (983.16 hectares) has a high potential for city expansion, which often includes the northern and eastern parts. These findings can be used as a suitable model for identifying places prone to urban development and a suitable tool for urban planning.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Modeling
  • Integrated Model of Markov Chain and Automatic Cells
  • Urban Development
  • Hierarchical Analysis Process
  • Qazvin City

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 05 اسفند 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 29 تیر 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 16 مهر 1403

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