شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر تحقق‌پذیری سند ملی آمایش سرزمین در ایران با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری

نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران.

چکیده

سند ملی آمایش سرزمین به‌عنوان برنامه‌ای راهبردی برای توسعه متوازن و پایدار کشور تدوین شده است، اما تجربیات گذشته نشان داده که اجرای کامل آن با چالش‌های متعددی روبرو بوده است. هدف این پژوهش بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر تحقق‌پذیری سند ملی آمایش سرزمین مصوب 1399 با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری است. پژوهش حاضر از نوع کاربردی و با رویکردی توصیفی-تحلیلی و اکتشافی انجام شده است. جامعه آماری شامل 11 نفر از متخصصین و کارشناسان است که از طریق نمونه‌گیری گلوله‌برفی انتخاب شده‌اند. روایی ابزار تحقیق توسط سه متخصص حوزه پژوهش تأیید گردید. داده‌ها از طریق منابع کتابخانه‌ای در بخش نظری و تکنیک دلفی در بخش عملی جمع‌آوری شد. در نهایت 47 عامل مؤثر شناسایی شد. برای تحلیل داده‌ها از روش تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و نرم‌افزار میک‌مک استفاده گردید تا میزان تأثیرگذاری عوامل اولیه بر یکدیگر ارزیابی شود. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که عواملی چون ارائه الگوهای همسان برای توسعه شهرستان‌ها، نامشخص بودن الزامات تحقق‌پذیری سیاست‌ها، عدم حضور نهادهای دخیل، غفلت از ارائه راه‌حل‌های اجرایی، عدم توجه به اصول اقتصاد مقاومتی و توسعه درون‌زا و کم‌توجهی به مسائل محیط‌زیستی و اجتماعی بیش‌ترین تأثیر را در عدم تحقق سند دارند. این یافته‌ها می‌تواند به بهبود فرآیند اجرای سند و دستیابی به اهداف آن کمک کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Identifying the Factors Affecting the Realization of the National Land Development Document in Iran with a Foresight Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehdi Ebrahimi Bozani 1
  • Fahime Fadaei jazi 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Ph.D Student, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The National Land Use Master Plan has been developed as a strategic program for the balanced and sustainable development of the country. However, past experiences have shown that its full implementation has faced numerous challenges. The aim of this research is to examine the factors affecting the feasibility of the National Land Use Master Plan approved in 2019 (from a foresight perspective. This study is applied in nature and follows a descriptive-analytical and exploratory approach. The statistical population consists of 11 specialists and experts selected through snowball sampling. The validity of the research instrument was confirmed by three experts in the field. Data were collected through library resources for the theoretical section and the Delphi technique for the practical section. A total of 47 influential factors were identified. For data analysis, the cross-impact analysis method and the MICMAC software were used to assess the impact of primary factors on each other. The results show that factors such as providing standardized models for the development of districts, unclear requirements for the feasibility of policies, the absence of involved institutions, neglecting to provide practical solutions, lack of attention to resistant economy principles and endogenous development, and insufficient consideration of environmental and social issues have the greatest impact on the non-implementation of the plan. These findings can help improve the implementation process of the plan and achieve its objectives.  

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Feasibility
  • The National Document of Land Planning
  • Foresight
  • Iran
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